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African economists lower expectations_RA_허창명_0317-103436.mp3

작성일 : 2010-03-17 10:33

이름 : 허창명

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African Economists Lower Expectations/

As Price Hikes Threaten Growth/

The African Economic Outlook report/

forecasts a nearly six percent growth/

in the continent's Gross Domestic Product this year,/

continuing through 2009./

The report/

was prepared jointly by the African Development Bank,/

the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,/

and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa./

But that report was written in February./

At a news conference Friday,/

co-author Leonce Ndikumana,/

the UNECA's chief of macroeconomic analysis/

admitted that the rapid price hikes/

of the past three months,/

combined with poor rainfall/

in many predominantly agricultural African regions/

have changed the picture considerably./

"We started working on/

forecasting African economic performance…./

and these figures were for October,/

so we were forecasting 6.1 percent for Africa,/

but then when we were finalizing the figures in February,/

many things had happened./

So the model gave us much lower figures./

I would not be surprised/

that if we did it again now/

we would find much much lower figures."/

Ndikumana says/

conditions have deteriorated so rapidly over the past three months/

that an economic forecast done today/

might estimate Africa's growth/

as low as five percent/

over the coming year and a half./

But he says even that reduced figure is healthy./

"Even if we have to revise the forecast,/

it would still give us a figure/

above five percent,/

which is good,/

by historical standards for African countries./

Now if the oil prices keep going up.../

if food prices keep going up,/

for net food importers/

that's going to be a challenge./

And if the rain/

if the weather is erratic as it has been,/

than we would even reduce the forecast."/

Ndikumana cautions Africa's economic policymakers,/

especially those in non-oil producing countries,/

to be cautious in planning for the coming months./

He also urges donor countries and lending agencies/

to be ready to increase levels of assistance/

if conditions deteriorate further./

"African policy makers/

should be concerned about some key developments,/

including high oil prices,/

high food prices/

and the instability of the weather,/

especially because of the predominance of agriculture./

What we advocate for/

is of course, for continued prudent policies/

at the international level,/

but we advocate for special assistance/

from the donor community,/

especially for oil importing countries,/

and net food importers."/

There was fresh evidence Friday/

of the crippling effect of high oil prices/

on non-oil producing countries./

Ethiopia's central bank reported/

the trade deficit had expanded 15 percent to $1.3 billion/

in the quarter ending in January./

That deficit is likely to widen,/

given the sharp price increase in recent weeks./

Western economists and diplomats say/

the International Monetary Fund/

is preparing to offer Ethiopia a bridge loan/

of more than one billion dollars/

to help it through a foreign exchange crunch./

News agencies have reported that/

imports of oil and other commodities/

have pushed Ethiopia's foreign exchange reserves/

down to worrisome levels./

Peter Heinlein, VOA News, Addis Ababa/

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